If you’ve been quietly hoping for some juicy rate cuts to land in your lap this year, it might be time for a small reality check.
We know. Not the opening line you wanted. But stick with us, because being prepared beats being surprised every single time.
The Current Situation (AKA – Why We Can’t Have Nice Things)
The RBA held the cash rate at 3.60% back in December, which on the surface sounds like… fine? Stable? Nothing to see here?
But here’s the thing.
Inflation has crept back up to 3.8% after four straight monthly increases. And if it stays above the RBA’s target band of 2–3% into 2026? Rate cuts are about as likely as finding a parking spot at Westfield on Boxing Day.
Some economists are even warning the next move could be up, not down.
Yeah. We said it.
What the Experts Are Saying
RBA Governor Michele Bullock (not to be confused with her distant cousin Sandy, no word yet on whether she’s also got a bus to stop) didn’t sugarcoat it. She said she doesn’t see interest rate cuts “on the horizon for the foreseeable future.”
Ouch.
And economist Warren Hogan (not to be confused with his uncle Hulk, though we’d pay good money to see him body slam inflation) went a step further. He’s suggesting the RBA should start lifting rates again from early 2026.
Double ouch.
So… What Does This Actually Mean for You?
Look, we’re not here to be doom and gloom merchants. But we are here to help you stay one step ahead. Because that’s the whole point of having a mortgage broker in your corner, right?
Here’s how all of this might play out depending on your situation:
If You’re Coming Off a Fixed Rate
This is the big one.
If your fixed rate is about to expire (or has recently), your repayments could jump. And by “jump,” we don’t mean a cute little hop. We mean a “where did all my money go?” kind of leap.
The good news? Reviewing your loan now gives you time to plan. You can shop around, negotiate, or restructure before you’re forced into panic mode.
Nobody makes great financial decisions in panic mode. Trust us.
If You’re Already on a Variable Rate
Here’s a fun fact that not enough people know – banks don’t always wait for the RBA.
Yep. Interest rates can change independently of whatever the Reserve Bank decides to do. Banks have their own funding costs, their own strategies, and their own profit margins to think about.
So even if the RBA holds steady, your lender might still nudge your rate up. Or, plot twist, a quick review might uncover a sharper rate or a more stable setup elsewhere.
It’s worth checking in. Even if everything seems fine on the surface.
The 2026 Game Plan – Be Proactive, Not Reactive
We get it. Life is busy. Adulting is exhausting. The last thing you want to do is spend your weekend comparing home loan rates.
But here’s the deal, lenders are changing things up in response to inflation pressure and new lending rules. And the people who stay ahead of these changes? They’re the ones who keep more money in their pockets.
So let’s talk strategy.
1. Know Your Numbers
When was the last time you actually looked at your loan? Like, really looked at it?
If your answer is “when I signed the paperwork three years ago,” it might be time for a refresh.
Check out our Borrowing Power Calculator to see where you stand right now. It takes two minutes, and it might surprise you.
2. Understand What’s Driving Rates
A few things to keep your eye on this year:
- Inflation trends – If inflation keeps climbing, rates stay high. Simple as that.
- RBA policy decisions – They meet regularly, and every announcement is worth paying attention to.
- Your lender’s behaviour – Remember, they don’t have to follow the RBA. Watch for sneaky rate changes in your statements.
- Global economic conditions – What happens overseas can ripple back to our shores faster than you’d think.
You don’t need to become an economics nerd. But a general awareness goes a long way.
3. Consider Locking In (At the Right Time)
Some experts are suggesting the first half of 2026 might be the sweet spot for locking in rates, before any potential rises in the second half of the year.
Of course, timing the market is a bit like trying to time your arrival at a house inspection. You do your best, but there are no guarantees.
The key is to act when conditions align with your goals, rather than waiting for some magical “perfect” moment that may never come.
4. Don’t Wait for a Crisis
This is the big takeaway.
The best time to review your loan isn’t when you’re stressed about repayments. It’s before that happens.
Think of it like getting a check-up when you’re healthy. Boring? Maybe. Smart? Absolutely.
What Could Keep Rates Elevated?
Let’s be real, there are a few things that could throw a spanner in the works:
- Sticky inflation that just refuses to come down
- Strong economic growth (yes, sometimes good news for the economy is bad news for rates)
- Geopolitical disruptions that mess with supply chains and costs
- Unexpected shifts in RBA leadership or policy
We can’t predict the future. But we can help you prepare for different scenarios.
The Bottom Line
2026 is shaping up to be a year where the proactive borrowers win.
If you’re coming off a fixed rate, review your options now, not when the new repayments hit your account.
If you’re on a variable rate, don’t assume everything’s fine just because the RBA hasn’t moved. Check in with your lender (or better yet, check in with us).
And if you’re just generally feeling a bit “ugh” about your mortgage situation? That’s valid. Home loans are complicated. Life is complicated. But you don’t have to figure it all out alone.
Let’s Chat
Want clarity on how all of this affects your loan specifically?
Book in for a loan review and we’ll help you get financially organised for whatever 2026 throws at us. No jargon. No pressure. Just a straight-up conversation about your options.
Because staying in control of your repayments? That’s always a good look.
You’ve got this. And we’ve got you. 💪